Friday, November 9, 2012

Property Values in California 2013, 2014, 2015

My property value predictions for CA; Prices will largely stagnate in population centers and drop in suburban and rural areas.
My reasoning:
1. CA just elected a Democrat Super Majority to our state assemby. Prop 13 is now in danger.
2. Several large businesses, most notably Boeing have announce lay-offs and plant closures in this state.
3. Business owners continue to emigrate from Ca.
4. Continuing amounts of real estate shadow inventory that will not be absorbed by the CA economy because of private sector job loss. There are probably two rounds coming with 3-4Million homes, and 5-6M homes and job losses may aggravate these numbers.
5. Failure to develop energy sources faster than we are closing them down and aging power distribution infrastructure.
6. Recent taxes on lumber and passage of proposition 30 allowing increased sales taxes will retard new construction of housing.
7. Also, in the near future septic tanks will no longer be allowed on properties less than 2.5 acres and on older homes, you'll be forced to hook to sewer. Might want to check into that before buying an REO.

If you can buy and reduce your housing outlay, interest rates make sense to do so, especially if you buy a solar-electric (photovoltaic) system at the time of purchase to hedge against rising electricity costs.
After Sandy,  and the gas shortages and rationing, I would seriously recommend buying an electric golf cart in case of a disaster, especially if you have solar panels. Especially if it has the standard plug for electric vehicles.


I can imagine a mini-bubble scenario if more government money is pumped into the economy, but we don't seem to have the population pressure on housing to drive prices up, though a speculative frenzy at these lower prices, or investors hedging against inflation may cause those investors to scoop up housing at today's low interest rates (3% ish)

I would like to read what any of you think on this, and your reasoning why.

2 comments:

Radical for Freedom said...

I will get some links to this in the near future.

HcoRealEstate said...
This comment has been removed by the author.